Climate change

From Envirowiki

Climate Change, or global warming, is the single largest and most all encompassing* environmental problem facing earth today. It's effects are potentially disastrous to civilisation and ecosystems.

while Global Warming is a hypothesis, all scientific evidence (as presented in peer-reviewed journals, and scientific body reports) seems to agree with the hypothesis: there hasn't been any real evidence that it isn't happening since late 2005, when data from satellites showing a lack of warming was corrected^[1]. and it's effects have already been measured to some degree

Climate change is all encompassing in that it affects, or is affected by the vast majority of issues that come up in working towards a more environmentally sustainable and socially just world: all aspects of the environment, racism and indigenous rights, women's rights, free-market capitalism, and many more

[edit] Effects of climate change

These effects and more have been predicted by scientific studies. Generally, the effect increases with more temperature rise.

• Losses of biodiversity - 35% of terrestrial species by 2050, up to 50% doomed to extinction by then (nature journal^{[reference needed]}
• Sea level rise - causing flooding, land loss, and soil salination
• Increase storm events
• Decrease rainfall in many parts of the world (newscientist^{[reference needed]})
• Kakadu, the Blue Mountains and Daintree, and the Great Barrier Reef all under threat due to climate change
• Climate refugees - 200 million by 2050 ("Citizens Guide to Climate Refugees" - Friends of the Earth)
• spread of disease, especially mosquito-bourne diseases, such as malaria

There is a comprehensive listing of studies done on the effects of climate change at http://www.stabilisation2005.com/outcomes.html- a british government report entitled "Avoiding Serious Climate Change" (which doesn't seem to have many solutions for avoiding it ironically).

There is also a possibility of "tipping points" occuring in the warming process, where warming causes positive feedback, with the final effect of increasing total warming even more. Some hypothesised tipping points include the amazon drying out, soils releasing carbon, and permafrost thawing and releasing methane.

[edit] What needs to be done

[edit] Targets

Jim Hansen argues for a 350ppmv cap on carbon dioxide emissions for ensuring a stable climate. This has already passed, but if we ceased CO2 emissions quickly, some carbon would naturally be drawn down into soils and the ocean^[2].

According to the IPCC 4AR, a stabilisation of 450 ppmv CO2-e (total) is “likely” to lead to temperature rises of ~2°C. This is defined as a 50% chance of remaining under 2°C^[3]. That is, stabilising CO2-e in the atmosphere at 450ppm would carry a 50% chance of temperatures exceeding the commonly accepted threshold of “dangerous climate change” - 2 degrees Numerous reports have pointed out that 2°C is the highest temperature increase that we can assume reasonably safe^[4][5]. After 2 degrees, positive feedbacks are much more likely, including the release of methane from the sea floor and from permafrost, and the collapse of carbon-dense ecosystems such as the Amazon rainforest. These feedbacks open up the possibility of further climate change, to the point where a 3°C increase may inevitably lead to a 5-6°C increase, which would be catastrophic.

[edit] Mindset change

Daniel Quinn argues convincingly in his books that we can try to create change within our society in an external manner, but if we don't change our mind-set away from our current anthropocentric one, then we are doomed to fail, for the same reasons we are failing now.

[edit] what can be done about it

The carbon emissions from the past ~400 years of coal burning, ~100 of petroleum burning, and thousands of years of land clearing for agriculture can not be undone in the short term. On the other hand, future carbon emissions can be seriously reduced or, even better, eliminated, and mitigation can take place. Adaption is probably only possible for the rich minority.

[edit] Direct action

Climate action is being taken on many levels, with varying levels of success and failure. From community-based direct action, to governmental regulation, business action to international negotiations and agreements.

Community based action has many means and aims, often it is used to raise awareness, other times, such as when non-violent direct action is used, it can simply target the root cause of the problem: fossil fuel extraction and consumption. Often, such actions are broken up after only a few hours by the police (who, in many states, such as australia, act more and more frequently as the long arm of capitalism - instead of for the people), and don't have a huge impact on actual emissions. However, such actions can have a multitude of beneficial outcomes, such as sending a strong message that the community will not stand for continued destruction of the planet. Among others, a large, grassroots, decentralised network of groups called Rising Tide uses such tactics, as do Greenpeace, and many others.

Taking direct action is not a light decision - ramifications can be large, often including fines, sometimes including jail time, or worse, depending on the regime. proponents often take the actions they take due to an understanding that other methods - political or corporate lobbying do not work due the the inherent flaws in capitalism.

[edit] UNFCCC

On an international governmental level, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), holds frequent meetings, attempting to create international agreements on how to move forward on climate change equitably. The most famous of these is the Kyoto Protocol, signed in 1997 by all members of the UN, but not ratified by Australia until the Howard government was decisively booted out of office in 2007, and as yet unratified by the USA.

The UNFCCC recently met in Bali, to begin discussions on a post-kyoto agreement. The US, Canada and Japan, and, to a lesser extent, Australia, were actively blocking consensus, on the basis that the 20-45% cuts by 2020 targets should not be included. The US delegates, who held out until the last, were booed off stage. The conference convenor left in tears. Finally, the US conceded having the targets left out of the wording, but included as a footnote.

The Bali conference ended with an agreement to set a negotiations period of two years, and to meet in Copenhagen in 2009.

[edit] See also

• Carbon coach ^[6]
• Climate change in Australia

[edit] references

1. ↑ http://www.skepticalscience.com/satellite-measurements-warming-troposphere.htm
2. ↑ http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/27/AR2007122701942.html
3. ↑ IPCC 4AR synthesis report, Topic 5, Table 5.1.
4. ↑ Climate Code Red
5. ↑ tindale?
6. ↑ http://www.carboncoach.com/

[edit] external links

• Skeptical science arguments list - a great list of arguments commonly used on the 'net by climate skeptics